What If We’re Wrong?
What if the global warming isn’t caused by the greenhouse gases (GHGs) at all? What if there are cyclical fluctuations in the amount of heat the Earth generates (I’m led to believe our home is powered by a nuclear reactor)? Perhaps the sun itself has energy output fluctuatuions and we are receiving more sunlight than “usual”? Are the warm spots (sometimes called La Nina and El Nino) in the Pacific ocean caused by a giant vent that fluctuates in size, or the underwater volcanos that seem to come and go? Is it that ocean warming causing the ice to melt? Hmmmmm.
I pose these questions not to say that global warming and GHGs are not related, but to say I don’t know. I do know there *appears* (we have been fooled by appearances before, but we must act on what we observe) to be a definite trend in global warming. There is a lot of uncertainty as to the rate of the warming (it seems to accelerate, which is odd) but not much doubt as to its existence. My question is, what is causing it?
Certainly there is logic in blaming the GHGs, but that timeframe is very limited. The Earth has been going thru these changes a long before the humans started contributing significantly to the environment. My point is, are we ignoring the actual cause of the warming by presuming we already know the answer? It is always more difficult to solve a problem when you do not understand the problem. I have noticed that most reports state that GHGs “contribute to” global warming, not that they cause it. A weasely statement if there ever was one. How much do they contribute? What is the largest contributor?
Normally this is where the scientists come in. Science, ostensibly, is the method by which facts are determined. Theory - test - evaluation (repeat as necessary). Sadly, “science” has come to mean the sound bites made by representatives of one organization or another. The true effort of the scientific method is left for minions whose work may never be revealed. Such is the way of the humans.
I hope I have given you pause to think. To wonder, just because I heard someone say it is it true? The Earth is handling global warming the way it always has. We are in trouble not because the Earth changes but because we did. We no longer walk to where the food is, we expect it to be delivered to us. We also expect to live on oceanview property, but that is another matter entirely.
- Posted in : Philosophy, Politics
- Author :Rt
Comments»
There is ample scientific evidence to show convincingly that humans are in fact the cause of the rapid warming we are seeing in the climate, and that the main cause is the release of green house gasses. The vast vast majority of the worlds scientists are convinced of this. In fact many world governments (including out own) are starting to accept this theory and are starting to do something about it.
Global warming is real, we are causing it, its carbon dioxide and other green house gasses that are to blame. Its really that simple.
Too simple for my tastes
I guess to answer your question, if we change our energy system over to clean renewable sources, increase efficiency, and stop pollution and we are wrong about global warming, then we end up with a nice clean earth and a better political position (wont rely on oil from crazy countries).
If however we are right and humans do cause global warming, and we do nothing about it, we end up dead.
The move to sustainable energy stands on its own merits. I love the progress being made in that area. I’m just afraid it isn’t going to affect global warming (very much) and we may have missed an opportunity to affect it because we quit looking. It’s happening on such a large scale I doubt we can influence it much and money would be well spent preparing for it.
My opinion is it is a natural cycle, but I’ve been wrong before :) I juust thought it was worth thinking about.
I do agree that no matter what we should be preparing for global warming, at this point we are going to suffer negative effects from global warming and we should be ready for it.
I do accept that humans cause global warming and feel that renewable energy sources will go a long way towards solving this problem.
We disagree on the cause (because I don’t know) but we agree on the effect - there is global warming. We agree that sustainable energy is a good thing but for different purposes. I hope it will help the distant future, you hope it will help the present (btw, I hope you are right).
If the worst comes then there is a good chance of the collapse of the civilization we have come to rely on. Throw in a nuclear bomb or two and things can go downhill fast.
I admire the people who already live off the grid. I think more of us should. Our progress has produced many wonderful changes in our existence, almost all for the better. It will be sad if we lose all that. There are a lot of interdependancies.
How many of you realize that the primary, most important greenhouse gas is…water vapor? It accounts for as much as 95% of the greenhouse effect. It is usually not mentioned because there isn’t much that humans can do about it but it has been transformed into a nonissue. Not only is water vapor the major part of the greenhouse effect but the effects of cloud formation from water vapor are not well enough understood to be included reliably into “models”. That is, the major part of the greenhouse effect is not understood to a greater extent than CO2 can possibly be affected.
Another caution about science from “models” and not from controlled experiments. The most basic test of models that are time-dependent is the necessary but not sufficient condition that they be “back-tested”. The models, however, are unable to explain the various cooling and warming periods of the past including the most recent ones, the Little Ice Age followed by a warming period. Heuristic albeit not evidence is that the middle part of the LIA coincided with the Maunder Minimum 1685-1715 during which sunspots almost ceased. The possible effects of solar variation have not been included in the models nor have the negative feedback effects of more CO2 stimulating the production of CO2-eating algae in the oceans.
GHGs as a cause of global warming is getting more scrutiny. There are plans to do more investigation (I am led to believe). Very good.
That does not, however, negate the value of renewable energy or conservation. Sadly, these efforts will also suffer as anything associated with global warming will become a laughingstock.