Monday Confessional Year In Review 2007
In what is becoming a tradition around here this is my new years wrap up/look forward post. First the wrap up, last year around this time I made 6 predictions for 2007, lets see how close I came.
My predictions were:
- Wind power will be on fire in 2007. Look for triple digit growth in the wind industry and all sectors related to the wind industry.
- Global warming will start to be taken seriously, particularly by presidential candidates. Look for at least one major candidate to make it there main platform
- Look for major consolidation in the solar panel industry, perhaps even look to semiconductor companies to take over major solar operations.
- The plug in hybrid along with bio-fuel ready cars will start to become more popular
- Look for oil to hit 90+ dollars a barrel this summer.
- The Sietch will add at least 5 new members, and look to get over 1000 visitors a day by the end of the year.
Lets see how I did.
Wind power was certainly on fire this year, with some places seeing massive growth in installed capacity. Not triple digit growth, but still very impressive.
Global warming was one of the largest topics this year. With Al Gore and the IPCC getting a Nobel peace prize for their work in exposing the dangers of climate change to the world, and with every major democratic candidate (including my favorite) proposing at least some plan to tackle this problem. I would say that 2007 became the year that people woke up, and started to realize that things are getting bad, and that they need to change.
The solar industry got a huge boost this year with companies producing solar panels cheaper than coal, with silicon valley getting into solar in a big way.
Biofuels took off in 2007, in sort of a bad way. Driven mostly by large agra-business and midwestern senators looking to bring money to their states, biofuels were produced in largely unsustainable ways, and lamentably many tropical nations have begun cutting down rain forests to produce palm oil. Plug-in cars also got a lot of press, again I was only half right as no major companies released a plug-in model in 2007.
Not only did oil hit over 90 dollars a barrel, it almost topped 100!
The Sietch did in fact add several new members, several new guest bloggers, and opened up MySietch, a place where people can set up their own blogs and add their voice to the conversation. We currently get about 4000 visitors a day! Thanks to everyone who made this our best year yet!
So I would say I got about 5 out of 6 (if you count that I didn’t get all of them completely) not bad for someone with little psychic skill, or a time machine.
So what about 2008, what will this year bring.
My Predictions for 2008:
2007 was the year that people started to think seriously about climate change, look for 2008 to be the year that world governments start to pass serious carbon laws. Look for cap and trade, carbon taxation, and global treaties dealing with emissions reduction.
A Democratic will win the presidency.
Feedback loops and continued warming will make 2008 the worst year for arctic and antarctic melting on record.
Continued droughts and water shortages will bring dramatic lifestyle changes to people in the south west and south east.
At least one major car company will produce an electric or plug-in hybrid model.
Look for oil to top 120 dollars a barrel at least once in 2008.
2008 will be the year of the green consumer, look for a flood of eco-friendly products and services to take over the market. The second part of this prediction is that we will see massive greenwashing campaigns by companies hoping to cash in on this trend without really doing much in the way of making their products greener.
I am going to once again predict that renewable energy will explode in 2008, look for 30-50% growth in the solar and wind industry world wide.
Cape Wind will be approved and perhaps even start construction in 2008.
Those are my predictions of 2008, we will have to wait till 2009 to see how many I got right this time. I wish you all a happy new year and hope that 2008 brings you peace, love and happiness. Lets hope that we can all make 2008 the year that we get serious about protecting the environment for ourselves and our future generations. Happy New Year!
Bicycle Powered Welder
A while ago I highlighted the very cool bicycle powered super computer, in that vein here is a bicycle powered welder.
I think this device would also make a nice bicycle powered lathe. Like I said when the zombies rise up, we will need these valiant bicycle hero’s to provide services for the future.
Germany Going 100% Renewable (Or Yet Another Reason Why America Is Falling Behind)
This is about the coolest damn thing ever. I have long thought that our big monkey brains could come up with a way to power all the little gadgets we have with nothing but renewable energy. Leave it to them wacky Germans to actually go and do it.
Scientists from the University of Kassel have been busy proving that Germany can power itself entirely by renewable energy. In an ongoing experiment called the KombiKraftwerk ‘Combined Power Plant’ (English version), they link 36 biogas plants, wind, solar and hydropower installations in a distributed network to show that no matter what the weather, or what time of day it is, germany could get all its energy from renewable power.
I don’t just mean adding a bit to the grid, I mean all of it. Peak load, base load, spikes, low power demand times, the works. Pretty freaking sweet if you ask me.
The test project is scaled to meet 1/10,000th of the electricity demand in Germany. This scale corresponds to the annual electricity requirements of a small town with around 12,000 households. Meaning that if scaled up large enough it could provide all of Germany’s power.
Projections show Germany has enough domestic resources to scale up production of renewables and replace all fossil fuels and nuclear power, and the scientists think the country can achieve full renewables based energy autonomy by mid-century.
There are future plans to add not only carbon neutral power sources, but to actually produce enough renewable energy to power carbon capture and storage technologies to remove co2 already in the air. Thus helping to work us back towards a state of climate when global warming was not such a destructive specter.
In such ‘negative emissions’ or ‘carbon negative’ energy systems, the energy crops used for the bio-power then act as machines that store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which is consequently captured and buried under the ground in geological formations. Scientists project that if such systems were applied on a global scale, they could cool the planet and take us back to pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels by mid-century.
If the US doesn’t get its act together it will be left in the dirty carbon past while other developed nations push forward with clean renewable technology. The USA could be the one developing these technologies (and then selling them to the world), developing green jobs, and actually leading the world. Lets hope our next president gets to work on these problems.
Further reading:
Technical specs (pdf)
Thinks Looking Good For North West Ohio
As I was just in Toledo for yon holiday, I thought it would be appropriate to share some good news. Seems that someone has been listening to all my ranting about how we should retool the aging American auto-industry into a solar/wind powerhouse.
Ohio’s top business booster predicted yesterday that northwest Ohio could one day be known as the solar-energy capital of the Midwest.
At the end of a year that saw more gloomy economic news locally, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who directs the Ohio Department of Development, offered a relatively rosy forecast for the region. “I’m very optimistic about the future of the northwest Ohio economy,” he said.
Citing the presence of firms involved in development and production of more cost-efficient solar panels in metro Toledo, plans for a commercial wind farm south of Bowling Green, and construction of ethanol plants elsewhere in the region, Mr. Fisher said northwest Ohio leads the state in alternative energy ventures.
“There is no area of the state that has greater potential for creating an advanced energy cluster than northwest Ohio,” he said.(via)
This makes so much sense it hurts that they haven’t done it already. Gosh, well lets see, we have an educated workforce hungry for jobs, old manufacturing facilities sitting around doing nothing, lots of wind, a fair amount of sun, and don’t forget one of the most efficient and developed transportation facilities on the planet (you can literally go by air/train/truck/boat/horse/bicycle to almost anyplace in America from northwest Ohio easily).
The Toledo area’s history as a glass manufacturing center and the presence of leading experts in a new style of thin-film solar panels at the University of Toledo have helped create a budding solar energy industry locally, Mr. Fisher noted.
Perrysburg Township is the home of research operations and the lone U.S. production plant of Phoenix-based industry star First Solar Inc. Perrysburg also has a research and development center operated by Q-Cells AG, which is Europe’s largest solar panel producer. A UT spin-off, Xunlight Corp., is opening a solar panel plant in Toledo.
“Toledo and northwest Ohio represent the opportunity to transform what has … been known as America’s breadbasket … into America’s fuel tank,” Mr. Fisher said.
Along with solar energy, developers JW Great Lakes Wind LLC of Cleveland and American Municipal Power-Ohio plan to install a commercial wind farm near Bowling Green.
Mr. Fisher also mentioned an ethanol plant being built in Fostoria.
The Ohio Development Department’s Energy Office is studying ways that northwest Ohio’s expertise in mass production of glass - most solar panels involve chemicals sprayed on layers of glass - can be used to improve the solar industry locally, Mr. Fisher said.
The industry would get a boost from a proposal by Mr. Strickland to require that 25 percent of electricity used in Ohio be produced by renewable means by 2025, the lieutenant governor added.
Lets hope they get a move on, if there is one thing that area needs, it’s green jobs.
6 Things You Must Do : A New Year’s Resolution
I’ve never been a big one for new year’s resolutions - the thought of being really bad for the year apart from the week or two after new year seems like a terrible way to live your life - but after wracking my brains making a list of six things that every person on Earth needs to do in order for this planet not to buck us off in a fit of biochemical rage, I had to put it on the Internet for everyone to use. The list encompasses the key areas of activity by which we have the most impact on the Earth, along with two things that we don’t do enough of:
CONNECTING
CONSUMING
EATING
LIVING
TRAVELLING
EDUCATING
None of the changes are easy, unless you are already part (or all) of the way there, and they are continuous: 2030 may be the hypothetical cut-off point, beyond which our changes, if not sufficient already, will only slow the rate of catastrophic change; but even if we have changed enough to save our future, then we have to keep changing to integrate ourselves fully with the planet that supports us, to make us worthy of an existence on this world.
6 Things You Must Do is published on The Earth Blog. It should be published everywhere.
Keith Farnish wishes you a Happy New Year!
www.theearthblog.org
www.greenseniors.org
Nice Long Google Talk On Installing Solar Panels
So can you tell I am trying waste a lot of time on youtube while I wait for my train to get here? Yea I am, but this is an interesting talk about the solar panel installation process. If you are thinking of installing solar panels on your home this might be a good thing to watch for a general overview. I also have been part of the installation of several systems so if you have any questions drop them in the comments.
This Is How It Really Went Down
I am stuck at home, and this made me smile. Happy Christmas, holidays, solstice, etc.
Happy Holidays
Weather you are celebrating the baby Jesus, or like me just trying to make it through alive, happy holidays.
Here is some good news to help you make it all the way till the morning with uncle Bob and aunt Martha.
Traveling By Train
You might have noticed it was a little quiet around here yesterday. That is because I was on a train all day. I have traveled back to the heartland for the season to spend some time with my family and celebrate consumerism on a massive and out of control scale Christmas.
I spent a bit of time thinking about my yearly trip home, one I usually do by car. I wanted to try and find the most convenient and greenest way to travel. Here is a bit of my thought process.
Planes are inconvenient and frankly nerve wracking to be on this time of year. Trains are slower, and don’t offer as direct routes to places you want to go. Car travel can be fun if you have multiple people to help with the drive (I don’t), but it is still slow, still bad for the environment, and very subject to the vagrancies of weather. Or you could take the bus, which for a 1500 mile trip is not fun, trust me.
So basically traveling half way across the country is going to be a pain no matter what. I threw out flying almost right away. I hate flying, I hate the idea of burning kerosene and then placing the resulting mess directly into the atmosphere, I also always seem to get the second stage molestation search when I fly. With that out of the way it was a breakdown between bus, car and train.
I next got rid of bus travel. I had done long distance bus travel before and it was pretty uncomfortable. They are cramped, they don’t offer any amenities, and they often take forever to get places due to the many and frequent stop, both for picking up passengers and for traffic lights. They are also very subjected to weather. If its really bad weather, your bus trip is going to take an eternity.
So it was down to car, and train. Taking a car would take about 12-13 hours of non-stop driving (assuming I went a bit above the speed limit the whole time), and from experience several tanks of gas. Taking the train was going to take 20 hours, mostly because I got my tickets late and couldn’t get the most direct route.
Eco Breakdown:
The map above is by car. It is about 1500 miles round trip. My car gets about 28 mpg on the highway. so thats roughly 54 gallons of gas, or 1080 pounds of co2.
The best numbers I could find for equivalent MPG figures for trains (the one I was on was electric) are about 39 passenger miles per gallon. Our train was fully sold out (people even had to stand in the isles sometimes), so assuming 39 mpg traveling 1500 miles by train would equal about 39 gallons of gas, or 789 pounds of co2.
That was enough to put the train ahead in my opinion.
Comfort breakdown:
I have driven this trip several times, and let me tell you it is brutal. Even if you don’t get any bad traffic, bad weather, or have anything go wrong with your car, it is mentally and physically draining to drive non-stop for 13 hours. Your back hurts, you get sleepy and are in danger of nodding off (with resulting crash), if it snows, or rains, well its a mess.
Having taken the train I have to say it was pretty nice. I had a huge comfy chair that reclined way back into a bed like thing (even had a foot thing that folded up for more comfort). I got up and walked around several times stretching my legs and seeing the sights from the window without worrying about other cars. There was a food cart, and a lounge that sold drinks. I met some cool people and had a great time.
It was very easy to sleep, as the gentle rocking of the train makes you very comfortable. It was quiet, easy to get on and off the train (no one touched me in any place I didn’t want them to) and there was lots and lots of room for my luggage (I didn’t have to check anything and then have it get lost). They even had power plugs along the isles so you could plug in your laptop or dvd player (which many people did). I read almost an entire book, ate well, and slept well. I got to Ohio feeling pretty good.
Money Breakdown:
Car: 54 gallons of gas x $3.30 = $178.20
Train: my tickets cost $291 (I spent 12 extra dollars to have them deliver my tickets to my office, but got a AAA discount of about $24)
Plane: The cheapest tickets I could find were about $300 and due to my lateness in getting them they were significatly higher when I was looking to buy them.
(while technically bus was cheaper, there was no way you were going to get me on that thing for another 24 hour crazy ride)
Summary:
I would have to say, that train travel is hands down the best form of traveling I have done to date. It is better for the environment than traveling by car, and assuming that we someday move over to renewable energy as our main form of energy, electric trains would beat just about any form of travel that burned something in the eco-department. I really liked my journey, it was relaxing, I was very comfortable, and had great service.
I would fully recommend traveling by train for all your holiday (and other) long distance travel needs.
(ps: just as a crazy though I did briefly consider riding my bike home, but quickly got rid of that notion when I saw how long it was going to take, and how cold it was in the midwest)
War - Not Just An Idiotic Waste Of Money And Life
Not only is war a big waste of time, money and most importantly life, it also has this nasty side effect of wreaking havoc on the local environment. Modern warfare tactics, as seen in the American war in Vietnam, the Rwandan and Congolese civil wars, and the current war in Iraq, have greatly increased our capacity to destroy the natural landscape and produce devastating environmental effects on the planet, according to Sarah DeWeerdt, author of “War and the Environment,” featured in the January/February 2008 issue of World Watch.
Wartime destruction of the natural landscape is nothing new, but the scope of destruction seen in more recent conflicts is unprecedented. “For one thing, there is the sheer firepower of current weapons technology, especially its shock-and-awe deployment by modern superpowers. The involvement of guerrilla groups in many recent wars draws that firepower toward the natural ecosystems-often circumscribed and endangered ones-where those groups take cover,” writes DeWeerdt.
The deliberate destruction of the environment as a military strategy, known as “ecocide,” is exemplified by the U.S. response to guerrilla warfare in Vietnam. In an effort to deprive the communist Viet Cong guerrillas of the dense cover they found in the hardwood forests and mangroves that fringed the Mekong Delta, the U.S. military sprayed 79 million liters of herbicides and defoliants (including Agent Orange) over about one-seventh of the land area of southern Vietnam. By some estimates, half of the mangroves and 14 percent of hardwood forests in southern Vietnam were destroyed during Operation Trail Dust, threatening biodiversity and severely altering vegetation.
Less deliberate, but still devastating, were the environmental effects that stemmed from the mass migration of refugees during the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Nearly 2 million Hutus fled Rwanda over the course of just a few weeks to refugee camps in Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, making it the most massive population movement in history. Approximately 720,000 of these refugees settled in refugee camps on the fringes of Virunga National Park, the first United Nations World Heritage site declared endangered due to an armed conflict. The refugees stripped an estimated 35 square kilometers of forest for firewood and shelter-building materials. The dense forests also suffered as a result of the wide paths clear-cut by the Rwandan and Congolese
armies traveling through the park to reduce the threat of ambush by rebel groups.
The longterm ecological effects of the current war in Iraq remain to be seen. Looking to the effects of the recent Gulf War as a guide, scientists point to the physical damage of the desert, particularly the millimeter-thin layer of microorganisms that forms a crust on the topsoil, protecting it from erosion. Analysis of the area affected by the Gulf War has already shown an increase in sandstorms and dune formation in the region, and one study suggests that desert crusts might take thousands of years to fully recover from the movement of heavy vehicles.
“Warfare is likely to have the most severe, longest-lasting effects on protected areas that harbor endangered species, and slow-to-recover ecosystems such as deserts. Even in the most fragile environments, sometimes nature-and people-can surprise us,” writes DeWeerdt. “But turn and look in another direction and you are likely to see warfare’s enduring scars.”
RSS XML Feed
